US Strategy: Blockade Iran, Avoid War in Gulf

US Strategy: Blockade Iran, Avoid War in Gulf

The United States can effectively control the Persian Gulf, also referred to as the Arabian Gulf, and ensure the free flow of commerce, according to retired Vice Admiral Robert Harwood. He believes the current strategy of economically pressuring Iran, rather than using military force, is a strong approach to prevent the nation from controlling vital waterways like the Strait of Hormuz.

Admiral Harwood explained that the U.S. military has the capability to achieve any set objective. He noted the importance of using the term “Arabian Gulf” due to the larger Arab coastline on the body of water. The primary goal is to prevent Iran from illegally claiming control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade.

Economic Pressure Over Military Action

The current strategy focuses on a non-military approach, essentially blockading Iran’s oil exports. This aims to weaken Iran’s economy, making it difficult for the government to fund its policies and objectives. The success of this strategy hinges on how long Iran can withstand the economic pain.

Admiral Harwood compared this to a “kinetic solution,” such as bombing Iranian oil facilities like Kharg Island. However, he cautioned that such actions would create long-term problems. The current approach signals to Iran the consequences of its actions and forces it to consider capitulation on dictated negotiation terms.

“I think that’s a very strong and sound strategy. The question becomes how long will it take Iran to come to that realization.”

Assessing the Blockade’s Effectiveness

Reports indicate that the naval blockade has already succeeded in turning away ships, with figures around 26 or 27 vessels reportedly affected. This suggests the economic pressure is having an immediate impact. The strategy aims to starve Iran economically, complementing any military actions.

While the blockade appears effective, threats like sea mines and small Iranian motorboats remain concerns. These boats have been known to attack commercial vessels, though not American ones in recent incidents. Admiral Harwood acknowledged these threats but pointed to solutions, drawing parallels to combating piracy off the coast of Somalia.

Addressing Maritime Threats

To counter threats from small boats, ships can be armed with longer-range weapons. This would allow onboard personnel to defend against attacks.

However, the willingness of other nations to participate in such defensive measures is crucial. Their involvement is necessary because the flow of oil through these waters is important to them as well.

The U.S. can implement defensive measures by placing armed personnel on ships. These personnel could be equipped with weapons, potentially even missiles, similar to strategies used against Somali pirates. These steps can effectively address the threats posed by Iran to commercial shipping lanes.

Long-Term Implications and Nuclear Concerns

Admiral Harwood agrees that Iran is currently struggling economically, a situation expected to worsen. The focus extends beyond the Strait of Hormuz to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. A key objective is ensuring Iran does not pursue nuclear weapons, which would pose a far greater long-term threat.

He emphasized that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, the situation would be far more dire. The U.S. would then face the dilemma of Iran potentially controlling not only the Strait of Hormuz but also the vast oil reserves from the entire region.

This includes oil from Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Therefore, eradicating this threat is a top priority for long-term stability.

Dual Objectives for Regional Security

The strategy has two main objectives: opening the Strait of Hormuz for commerce and preventing Iran from ever obtaining nuclear weapons. These goals are closely linked and are essential for securing the Arabian Gulf, or Persian Gulf, and ensuring regional stability.

Admiral Harwood believes the President’s strategy aligns with these crucial objectives. The focus remains on applying economic pressure and preventing nuclear proliferation. This approach aims to achieve stability without resorting to direct military conflict.

The situation in the Arabian Gulf remains dynamic. Investors and observers will be watching to see how long Iran can withstand the economic sanctions and if diplomatic goals can be achieved without further escalation.

Source: This is a 'strong and sound' strategy: Retired vice admiral (YouTube)