Iran Smells Fear: Trump’s Iran Strategy Falters

Iran Smells Fear: Trump’s Iran Strategy Falters

President Donald Trump finds himself in a difficult spot regarding Iran. Reports suggest that a deal, which was thought to be settled, now seems very far off.

The White House appears desperate for a resolution, especially with upcoming negotiations in Pakistan. This situation puts Trump in a tough position, with limited good options.

A new poll shows that 61% of Americans do not want the U.S. to continue military actions in Iran. This public opinion significantly limits the choices for a president who has claimed victory without truly winning. Trump has repeatedly stated the war is going well and will end soon, but the reality on the ground appears different.

Trump understands the need for this war to end, wanting a successful legacy. However, Iran seems to sense this need and is playing a strategic game.

Former Ambassador John Bolton believes Trump’s public posturing gives Iran the advantage. The Wall Street Journal reported that the president is struggling with his own fears about the war, despite his public confidence.

Like a cornered animal, Iran can sense fear and feels empowered. They have experienced controlling the Strait of Hormuz and believe their radical base supports their defiance against America.

This situation makes Iran more convinced than ever that it needs nuclear weapons. However, some argue Iran’s actions actually prove Trump was right to take action and that Iran must be brought to heel.

Despite the military’s impressive capabilities, including boarding Iranian ships, it doesn’t seem to intimidate Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Negotiating with Iran is compared to negotiating with a pilot flying a kamikaze mission. In the past two weeks, Trump has not achieved what he wanted, ending up with unfavorable outcomes.

Mixed Messages and Shifting Strategies

Kelly Meyer reported from the White House that the situation is changing by the hour. President Trump went from claiming Iran agreed to everything to threatening more bombings. He also stated a deal would be reached that night, only to later post on social media that he would not be rushed.

These mixed messages, including daily phone calls to reporters, add to the administration’s difficulties. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament stated they do not accept negotiations under threats and are ready to reveal new battlefield options. This comes as the ceasefire deadline was extended to Wednesday evening, Washington time.

Vice President J.D. Vance is reportedly heading to Pakistan, but it’s unclear who will meet him.

Jeff Mason noted that President Trump is the chief strategist, spokesperson, and chief of staff, leading the strategy himself. This strategy has involved sending mixed messages to keep opponents off guard.

Mark McKinnon pointed out that while unpredictability is Trump’s strength with supporters, his handling of Iran has become predictable. With 61% of Americans wanting the war to end, Trump has little political choice but to find a way out, especially since he campaigned on avoiding foreign conflicts.

McKinnon drew parallels to the Iraq War, recalling how initial support faded. He expressed concern that it’s hard to imagine a conclusion to the current conflict that is better than before it started. Democrats and opponents will likely question the war’s worth if nothing is gained.

California’s Political Puzzle

In California, a state known for its strong Democratic leanings, the party is struggling to find a candidate for governor. The two leading candidates in the primary are Republicans, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco. This is happening in a state Kamala Harris won by 20 points.

Tom Steyer is running the most expensive campaign in America, reportedly spending $130 million. Despite his vast spending, he is polling at only 13%. Dean Phillips noted the surprising lack of attention on this consequential primary, especially given the state’s issues.

Joe Garofoli explained that California uses a jungle primary system where the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election. He believes more movement is expected in the polls, with Xavier Becerra, former Health and Human Services Secretary, showing a recent increase in support.

Phillips suggested that a business-minded candidate like Matt Mahan, the mayor of San Jose, could be a strong choice. Garofoli agreed that if a Democrat can get into the top two, they would likely win due to the state’s voter registration. However, he noted that none of the Democratic candidates are generating significant excitement.

The lack of enthusiasm is attributed partly to voter exhaustion after Proposition 50 and the absence of compelling Democratic candidates. The upcoming debate on Wednesday night will be crucial for voters to assess the candidates.

The New Face of Iranian Power

The Economist reports a power struggle within Iran, with the country’s supreme leader facing challenges. One observer likens the situation to a jungle where the strongest prevails. Ahmad Vahidi, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, is seen as a key figure now controlling negotiations.

Vahidi is described as a brutal figure with ties to past attacks on Americans, including the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing. He is also held responsible for the deaths of protesters in Iran. These actions are seen as a primary reason for Trump drawing a line in the sand.

Kirsten Fontenrose, former senior director at the National Security Council, stated that Iran’s actions are their standard playbook. They use negotiations to buy time, smuggle weapons, and reconstitute their forces. She believes Iran enjoys this situation, especially since Trump is looking for a deal and not seeking to restart strikes.

Fontenrose noted that Iran agreeing to meet face-to-face is a significant step, marking the first time they’ve met directly with a U.S. administration. She suggested that options like 10 years of non-enrichment in exchange for lifting the blockade are being discussed.

Regaining the Upper Hand

Brigadier General John Tigert expressed concern about appearing too eager for a deal. He believes the U.S. has options, including using military strategy to target the regime’s survival and financing. This approach could help regain the upper hand without appearing desperate.

Fontenrose believes a deal is possible if Iran agrees to long-term, verifiable non-enrichment, with oversight for medical-grade use. This would require lifting the blockade or unfreezing assets, with strict verification to ensure funds are not used for weapons.

Tigert suggested that if strikes were to resume, they should target energy-related assets, which are crucial for the regime’s funding and power. Attacking their funding directly impacts their ability to maintain control.

Both experts agreed that Iran has not yet seen consistent strength and consistency from the U.S. in the strategic realm. They believe Iran may have been caught off guard by the initial conflict but has now reverted to its old tactics.

International pressure, including from China, is also a factor. China faces its own energy crisis and needs the straits open, which puts some pressure on Iran. This suggests Iran is facing pressure from multiple fronts this time.

Tigert remains concerned about the economic sanctuary granted to Iran for six weeks. He believes that if strikes resume, they should focus on energy targets to impact the regime’s funding and ability to stay in power.

The article concludes by referencing Paul Revere’s ride 251 years prior, highlighting the importance of urgent warnings. It questions whether Trump can regain control of the narrative and regain the upper hand against Iran.

Source: Can Iran smell fear from Trump? GOP California dreaming | On Balance Full Show 4/20 (YouTube)