Heisman Hopes: The Preseason Favorites Who Fell Short

The Glitter and the Grit: A Decade of Preseason Heisman Favorites

Every year, the college football landscape is abuzz with predictions, and few are as fervent as the preseason Heisman Trophy favorites. These are the names whispered in awe, plastered on mock draft boards, and pegged by oddsmakers as the heir apparent to college football’s most coveted individual prize. But as history has shown us, the path from preseason darling to Heisman hardware is fraught with peril, unexpected twists, and the sheer, brutal unpredictability of the sport. A look back at the last decade reveals a fascinating, and often heartbreaking, trend: the preseason favorite rarely lifts the trophy.

2015: Trayvon Boykin’s TCU Dream Unravels

The 2015 season kicked off with TCU’s dynamic dual-threat quarterback, Trevone Boykin, as the slight favorite. After a stellar 2014 campaign that saw him win Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year and finish fourth in the Heisman race, expectations were sky-high. TCU, ranked number two nationally, was poised for a national title run. Boykin orchestrated an eight-game winning streak, tossing 28 touchdowns to just five interceptions. However, the wheels came off in a pivotal matchup against Oklahoma State, where four interceptions led to a crushing 20-point defeat. The following week, an injury forced him out of a game against Kansas, and he sat out against Oklahoma, further derailing TCU’s aspirations. Though he returned to finish the season with solid numbers and a 10th-place Heisman finish, his college career ended on a deeply unfortunate note. Boykin was arrested for assault on a police officer on December 31st, 2015, leading to his suspension from the Peach Bowl and a year of probation. He went undrafted in 2016 and his NFL career with the Seahawks was brief and ultimately ended due to domestic assault allegations.

2016: Deshaun Watson’s Near Miss and a Sweet Redemption

Deshaun Watson and Clemson were the darlings of 2016, fresh off a national championship appearance where they narrowly lost to Alabama. Watson, the ACC Player of the Year and a third-place Heisman finisher in 2015, was the clear favorite. Clemson, ranked second, once again navigated their way to the College Football Playoff with a dazzling 12-1 regular season. Watson’s lone loss that year was a statistical outlier, featuring 580 yards and three touchdowns. Despite his brilliance, he finished second in the Heisman race to Lamar Jackson’s video-game numbers. However, Watson and the Tigers achieved the ultimate redemption, orchestrating a last-second comeback victory against Alabama in the national championship game, a perfect send-off for his college career. He was a first-round pick by the Houston Texans, but his professional career and reputation have been irrevocably tarnished by subsequent allegations.

2017: Sam Darnold’s USC Rollercoaster

Sam Darnold arrived at USC with immense hype, taking over an unranked team in 2016 and leading them to a nine-game win streak, capped by a Rose Bowl victory. Expectations for 2017 were stratospheric, with USC ranked fourth. After a strong start, a road loss to Washington State and a demoralizing 49-14 defeat to Notre Dame derailed both USC’s playoff hopes and Darnold’s Heisman aspirations. While he led the Pac-12 in several passing categories, he also led the conference in interceptions. He ultimately did not finish as a Heisman candidate, with Baker Mayfield taking home the trophy. Darnold declared for the NFL draft and was selected third overall by the New York Jets. After a challenging start, he’s found a rhythm and is currently considered a top-10 NFL quarterback.

2018: Bryce Love’s Stanford Struggles

Stanford had a lineage of star running backs, with Christian McCaffrey preceding Bryce Love. After McCaffrey’s dominant 2015 season and a strong 2017 campaign that saw Love lead the nation in rushing with over 2,100 yards and finish second in the Heisman race, he was the 2018 favorite. However, 2018 was a stark contrast. Love’s production plummeted, with his yards per carry dropping significantly. A torn ACL in a late-season game against Cal effectively ended his college career. Despite factors like offensive line struggles and a persistent ankle injury impacting his play, Love finished the season with 739 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Kyler Murray claimed the Heisman. Love was drafted in the fourth round but never played in the NFL, now working as an analyst for the ACC Network.

2019: Tua Tagovailoa’s Season-Ending Injury

Tua Tagovailoa, fresh off a legendary performance in the 2018 national championship and a runner-up Heisman finish, was the slight preseason favorite over Trevor Lawrence. He began 2019 with an incredible streak of 23 touchdowns and no interceptions in his first five games. However, in the ninth game of the season, with Alabama holding a commanding lead, Tua suffered a devastating hip dislocation, fractured nose, and concussion. The injury required surgery and ended his spectacular season. He finished 10th in the Heisman race, though many believed he would have been the runner-up if healthy, with Joe Burrow having an historic season. Tua was the fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft by the Miami Dolphins. Despite injury concerns, he’s been a starter since his rookie year and signed a significant contract extension, leading the league in passer rating in 2022 and yards in 2023.

2020: Justin Fields Navigates a Bizarre Season

Justin Fields, after transferring to Ohio State from Georgia, was the 2020 preseason favorite, with a slight edge over Trevor Lawrence. He had a monster first year as the Buckeyes’ starter, racking up 51 total touchdowns and just three interceptions, winning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year. The loaded Ohio State team, featuring future NFL stars, went undefeated until a playoff loss to Clemson. This season, however, was defined by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to opt-outs, postponements, and a season that bled into the spring of 2021. Fields played only six games before the Heisman ceremony, finishing seventh. The award went to Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith. Fields was selected 11th overall by the Chicago Bears but has struggled to find a consistent groove as an NFL starter.

2021: Spencer Rattler’s Oklahoma Bench Sensation

Spencer Rattler was the preseason favorite entering 2021, following a strong 2020 campaign where he led the Big 12 in passing. Oklahoma, ranked second, was a national title contender. However, Rattler’s play didn’t meet expectations, marked by close calls and struggles. In a pivotal game against Texas, Lincoln Riley benched Rattler in favor of freshman Caleb Williams, who led a stunning comeback victory. Williams became the starter for the remainder of the season. Both quarterbacks departed Oklahoma the following year, with Riley and Williams heading to USC, and Rattler transferring to South Carolina. The 2021 Heisman went to Alabama’s Bryce Young. Rattler spent two years at South Carolina, failing to recapture his earlier hype, and was a fifth-round draft pick by the Saints, currently serving as a backup.

2022: C.J. Stroud’s Ohio State Dominance and Defeat

C.J. Stroud, after a strong 2021 season where he finished fourth in Heisman voting, was the 2022 preseason favorite. Ohio State, ranked second, dominated through the first 11 weeks, but a crushing loss to undefeated Michigan in the season finale cost them a Big Ten Championship appearance. Despite the loss, both teams made the College Football Playoff. Stroud’s production dipped slightly but was still elite, earning him a third-place Heisman finish. Many Ohio State fans attributed his Heisman loss to coaching decisions in the Michigan game. Ohio State lost to Georgia in the playoff semifinals. Stroud was the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft by the Houston Texans, where he immediately made an impact, winning Rookie of the Year.

2023: Caleb Williams’ USC Collapse

Caleb Williams, fresh off winning the 2022 Heisman Trophy, was the 2023 preseason favorite, aiming to become the first two-time winner since Archie Griffin. His journey from Oklahoma breakout star to leading USC’s dramatic turnaround made him a national phenomenon. The 2023 season started strong, with USC at 5-0 and Williams throwing 21 touchdowns to just one interception. However, the team suffered a dramatic late-season collapse, culminating in a blowout loss to Notre Dame where Williams threw three picks. USC finished 7-5, and despite similar statistical production to his Heisman year, Williams did not finish in the top 10. The award went to Jayden Daniels of LSU. The defense’s struggles were a significant factor in USC’s downfall. Williams was the number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft by the Chicago Bears.

2024: Dylan Gabriel’s Oregon Campaign

Oregon’s transfer quarterback, Dylan Gabriel, was the 2024 preseason favorite. After a solid 2023 season at Oklahoma, many expected him to thrive on Oregon’s loaded roster, especially after Bo Nix’s success there. Oregon, coming off a 12-2 season, was a national title contender. Gabriel led the Ducks to an undefeated regular season and a Big Ten Championship, dismantling opponents like UCLA and Ohio State. He finished third in the Heisman race behind Ashton Jeanty and Travis Hunter. In the Rose Bowl rematch against Ohio State, however, the Ducks were soundly defeated. Gabriel concluded a remarkable college career, having played at UCF, Oklahoma, and Oregon, and was selected in the third round by the Cleveland Browns, where he is currently their starting quarterback.

The Heisman Curse: A Statistical Anomaly

The trend is clear: being the preseason Heisman favorite is more of a curse than a blessing. While it often indicates a player will have a good season, the odds of actually winning the trophy remain incredibly low due to the myriad of variables in college football. In fact, you have to go back to 2004 with Matt Leinart to find the last preseason favorite who went on to win the award. The journey from preseason hype to actual hardware is a testament to the unpredictable nature of the game, where injuries, team performance, and the emergence of other stars can quickly shift the narrative.

Source: Preseason Heisman Favorites… How Did They Do? (since 2015) (YouTube)