Ukraine War: Sanctions Effective, But Putin’s ‘Shadow Fleet’ Needs Targeting

Ukraine Marks Four Years of War, Officials Assess Sanctions and Future

As Ukraine commemorates the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, key figures are reflecting on the conflict’s trajectory, the efficacy of international sanctions, and the path forward. Despite Russia’s initial objectives, Ukrainian forces have held their ground, leading to a protracted stalemate. The effectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia is a central theme, with calls for more robust measures, particularly targeting Moscow’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

Ukrainian Resilience and the Human Cost

Former Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK, Vadim Pristiko, described the profound changes in Ukrainian life over the past four years. “Most of us are still fighting in here trying to survive, but some of us are now in the European Union and somewhere else. Almost 8 million people went into immigration,” he stated. Despite the immense hardship, including the destruction of cities and loss of life, Pristiko highlighted Ukraine’s resilience. “We are not only surviving and not only managed to stop allegedly the second biggest army in the world, but we actually are living a kind of normal life today,” he noted, while acknowledging the ongoing need for remembrance and planning for future fighting.

“We are not only surviving and not only managed to stop allegedly the second biggest army in the world, but we actually are living a kind of normal life today.”

Vadim Pristiko, Former Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK

Debates on Compromise and Putin’s Intentions

The possibility of territorial compromise has been a subject of discussion, both internationally and within Ukraine. Pristiko acknowledged that Ukrainians are contemplating what compromises might be reasonable to end the war. However, he expressed skepticism about President Putin’s genuine desire for peace. “The biggest problem is that not many of us believe that he is actually looking for peace in any composition. So we might want to give or to discuss or compromise. The problem is that he’s not giving up his hopes to control the whole of Ukraine, and that’s something Ukraine is not going to give him.”

Sanctions: A Powerful, Yet Incomplete, Tool

Both Pristiko and Emily Thornberry, Labour MP and Chair of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, emphasized the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia. “The sanctions which have been put on him by the rest of the world, at least the democratic part of the world, they are working,” Pristiko asserted. He added that Ukraine’s military is also imposing its own sanctions, destroying Russian refineries. Thornberry echoed this sentiment, stating, “We need to continue to strangle the Russian economy.” She noted that Russia’s economy is in deep trouble and is functioning as a war economy, with sanctions impacting the basics of life for its citizens.

The ‘Shadow Fleet’ and Sanctions Evasion

A significant point of concern raised by both experts is Russia’s use of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers to circumvent sanctions. Pristiko described these as “dodgy ships that are going around with oil in them with dodgy flags.” Thornberry agreed, calling for more decisive action: “I think we’ve got more work to do when it comes to this very dodgy fleet of dodgy ships.” She advocated for increased boarding of these vessels to seize sanctioned oil and asserted that more needs to be done to be firmer than has been the case.

“We need to continue to strangle the Russian economy. And there’s I mean we’ve heard today about the aid being given but also 300 new sanctions being implemented by the British against Russia. We need to be doing it in conjunction with the Europeans. And we also need to make sure that those sanctions are actually implemented properly and that there’s no getting around the sanctions.”

Emily Thornberry, Labour MP and Chair of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee

Calls for Action: Frozen Assets and Military Aid

Beyond sanctions, Pristiko urged Western leaders to consider utilizing frozen Russian assets. “First thing which comes to my mind is this money, Russian money being frozen but not used. […] why instead of digging in the taxpayers’ money, we can’t use the Russian 300 billion being stored in European banks for the just purpose of rebuilding what they destroyed?” he questioned. Thornberry also stressed the importance of providing Ukraine with the resources needed to defend itself and fight back, emphasizing coordinated efforts with European allies and engagement with countries like India and China regarding oil exports.

Domestic Opinion and Future Political Landscape

When asked about domestic opinion regarding President Zelenskyy, Pristiko acknowledged the difficulty in gauging public sentiment under martial law, where media messages are largely consolidated. However, he noted that Ukrainians, like many nations, are often unhappy with their leadership, even during wartime. He also touched upon the complex political landscape concerning future elections, referencing Zelenskyy’s previous statement about not running for a second term and the current atmosphere where some citizens yearn for a return to pre-war political norms.

Looking Ahead: The Need for Unified Action

As the war continues, the focus remains on sustaining international pressure on Russia through robust sanctions and military support for Ukraine. The challenge of enforcing these measures, particularly concerning the “shadow fleet,” will be critical. The debate over potential compromises versus continued pressure, alongside the utilization of frozen Russian assets, will likely shape the conflict’s future. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether intensified economic pressure can compel Russia towards a genuine peace negotiation or if the conflict will remain a protracted struggle.

Source: Russian Sanctions Are ‘Very Effective’- So West Must Target Putin’s Shadow Fleet (YouTube)