Ty Simpson’s Combine Gamble: Will He ‘Let It Rip’ for Round 1?

Ty Simpson Bets Big on Combine Performance Amidst QB Class Uncertainty

In a pivotal moment for his NFL Draft aspirations, quarterback Ty Simpson is set to throw at the NFL Combine this Saturday, a decision that carries significant weight given the mixed opinions on his draft stock and his limited college starting experience. While projected number one pick Fernando Mendoza opts to showcase his talents at Indiana’s pro day on April 1st, Simpson, according to multiple reports, is embracing the opportunity to impress scouts in person.

A Calculated Risk for a Rising Prospect

The decision for Simpson to throw at the combine is a strategic one, especially after an unfortunate cracked rib injury sustained against Indiana in a playoff game prevented him from participating in the Senior Bowl. “He a smart move,” notes Mel Kiper Jr., highlighting that Simpson’s initial plan was to elevate his stock in Mobile. Now, with the combine as his primary stage, the pressure is on to demonstrate his capabilities to a league that has varying opinions on whether he’ll be a first or second-round selection.

“There’s some mixed opinions whether he’s a first or a second round pick. I have him going to Pittsburgh at 21. I think when you look at him, Matt, the throw there, he’s got an NFL arm. He can make all the throws. Don’t hold anything back. Let it rip just like he did at Alabama.”

Kiper’s assessment underscores the potential Simpson possesses: an NFL-caliber arm capable of making every throw. The advice is clear: “Let it rip.” This encouragement stems from Simpson’s time at Alabama, where he displayed flashes of brilliance, even with a limited 15 starts. For teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, who Kiper projects to take him at pick 21, or the New York Jets (pick 16 in another projection), seeing him perform live is crucial.

The In-Person Evaluation: More Than Just Film

The importance of an in-person evaluation cannot be overstated, particularly for quarterbacks. “Seeing a quarterback in person is such an important part of the evaluation to understand how big are they? How do they carry their weight? What is their frame like? What does the ball look like coming out of their hand? Where’s the velocity at? Where’s the throwing angles from?” explains one analyst. For Simpson, who had only 15 starts at Alabama, this combine workout represents a significant opportunity for general managers and scouts to get a tangible feel for his physical presence and throwing mechanics, beyond the game film.

While Simpson is expected to excel in the interview room, a point corroborated by scouts who anticipate him doing well on the whiteboard and in discussions with coaches, the on-field performance is where he can truly shine. This is especially true given the inconsistency that plagued the latter half of his season. After a strong start through the first nine games, where his poise and processing ability as a first-year starter were lauded, Simpson experienced a dip in confidence and decision-making in the final six games. Defenses seemed to adjust, and the run game faltered, leading to a noticeable fall-off.

Simpson’s Strengths: Poise, Processing, and a ‘Catchable Ball’

Despite the late-season struggles, Simpson’s early performance was a significant highlight. “The first thing that jumped out to me was his poise and processing ability from a first year starter,” one commentator notes. His ability to make the right decisions consistently, coupled with a “catchability” in his throws that made him appear more veteran than a first-year player, are key attributes. This is contrasted by ball security issues, including five straight games with a lost fumble in the latter half of the season, culminating in the hit from D’Angelo Ponds.

Comparisons have been drawn to Mac Jones, with one analyst suggesting Simpson is a “faster, more athletic M. Jones.” The physical measurements at the combine – height, weight, and wingspan – will be critical in solidifying these comparisons and providing a clearer picture of his NFL readiness. For Simpson, a strong combine performance could solidify his status as QB2 in this draft class and bolster his claim as a first-round talent, potentially narrowing the perceived gap between him and Mendoza.

A Look at Other Draft-Eligible Quarterbacks

The 2024 quarterback class presents a unique challenge for evaluators, with several prospects vying for attention beyond the top tier. The discussion also touched upon other potential late-round gems, drawing parallels to Tom Brady’s journey as the “poster boy for late round quarterback success.”

• Drew Allar (Penn State): With 35 starts, significantly more than Simpson, Allar possesses extensive experience. Despite an injury derailing his season, he has a strong build (6’5″, 238 lbs) and an effortless throw. However, inconsistent accuracy and decision-making are areas needing improvement. He’s viewed as a long-term project with the potential to be a first-round pick if things fell right, but now projects as a later-round selection. His athleticism, demonstrated by significant rushing yards against Oregon and UCLA, adds another dimension.
• Kade Klubnik (Clemson): Klubnik, another potential day-three pick, is noted for his accuracy and field vision. While he didn’t quite live up to early first-round hype, his game has been compared to Brock Purdy. His smaller frame is a consideration, but his mental acuity and potential in the right system, especially with playmakers and a solid run game, could make him a contributor.
• Talon Green (Arkansas): Green is described as a developmental quarterback with a “rocket of an arm” and significant athletic ability. His college career was marked by extreme inconsistency, oscillating between looking like the best player on the field and struggling significantly. He’s seen as a player who could benefit greatly from a strong quarterback coach and a development plan, much like the Packers historically utilized.

The NFL’s approach to quarterback development is a recurring theme, with a desire for teams to invest in late-round prospects. Teams like the Dallas Cowboys, with an established starter and experienced coaching staff, are seen as potential landing spots for such developmental talents. Ultimately, the success of these later-round picks often comes down to finding the right system and development plan, a process described as “catching lightning in a bottle.” While many will fail, the chance to find a diamond in the rough keeps teams drafting quarterbacks even in the later rounds.

For Ty Simpson, the combine is his immediate battleground. His decision to throw is a clear signal of his confidence and his determination to control his narrative, aiming to “let it rip” and solidify his position among the top quarterback prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Source: The benefits of Ty Simpson throwing at the combine: 'Let it rip!' – Mel Kiper Jr. | NFL Draft Daily (YouTube)