US Tightens Grip, Eyes Regime Change in Iran

Bolton Argues for Blockade, Regime Change in Iran

John Bolton, former National Security Advisor to President Trump and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations under George W. Bush, believes the current approach to Iran is flawed. He argues that a ceasefire was a mistake, giving Iran time to recover. Bolton advocates for a strong military stance, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz to allow Gulf Arab oil to flow freely. He also supports a continued blockade on Iranian oil exports.

China and Russia’s Stakes in Iran

Bolton highlights the significant interest China and Russia have in Iran’s success. He notes that China has supplied Iran with anti-ship rockets and may be providing shoulder-fired missiles. According to Bolton, these nations have a vested interest in Iran winning its current conflict. He suggests that pressuring Iran through oil blockades could also pressure China and Russia, as they would be denied access to Iranian oil.

Regime Change as a Strategic Goal

Bolton’s primary objective for U.S. policy towards Iran is regime change. He believes this would be a major victory for the United States and its allies in the Gulf, while significantly weakening Russia and China. He criticizes the idea that the CIA views regime change scenarios as unrealistic, recalling his own past efforts to persuade the Trump administration to pursue this goal. Bolton asserts that the Iranian people are largely against their current government and need outside support to organize and gain weapons.

Critique of Current Administration’s Approach

The article touches on reports suggesting the CIA director found regime change scenarios unrealistic. Bolton expresses surprise if President Trump considered a quick regime change, comparing it to a failed attempt in Venezuela. He points out that the United States may not be as committed to a prolonged path of regime change as Israel is. Bolton also criticizes the administration for not consulting with or aiding the Iranian opposition before starting recent hostilities, suggesting this was a missed opportunity to strengthen internal dissent.

Iran’s Strategy and Economic Pressure

The analysis suggests Iran’s strategy might involve waiting out domestic political opposition in the United States, especially concerning rising gas prices. Bolton counters this by stating that Iran is led by religious fanatics with a radical ideology, not driven by typical problem-solving motives. He believes Iran’s economy was already struggling before the conflict and is now in much worse shape. Bolton argues that this is the worst possible time for the U.S. to back away from pressure.

Bolton’s Proposed Solution: Oil Blockade and Strait of Hormuz

Bolton’s proposed solution involves using military force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring Gulf Arab oil can be exported. Simultaneously, he advocates for continuing the blockade on Iranian oil exports. He believes this dual strategy would put immense pressure on Iran. Furthermore, he suggests this action would lead to a quick drop in global gasoline prices, as the world was experiencing an oil glut before the conflict began, which had driven prices down.

Global Impact and Historical Context

This situation connects to a long history of U.S.-Iran tensions, dating back to the 1953 coup and escalating with the 1979 revolution. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal, aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, is seen by some, including Bolton, as having failed to address Iran’s broader destabilizing activities. The current conflict and potential for regime change have wider implications, potentially reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East and influencing global energy markets. China and Russia’s involvement highlights a broader geopolitical competition between major world powers, with Iran becoming a focal point.

Future Scenarios

One scenario involves the U.S. successfully implementing Bolton’s proposed blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, increasing pressure on Iran’s regime. Another scenario is Iran successfully weathering the storm, relying on its allies and hoping for a shift in U.S. domestic politics. A third scenario could involve a broader regional conflict if diplomatic efforts fail and military actions escalate. The likelihood of regime change depends heavily on internal Iranian dynamics and sustained international pressure, which remains uncertain.

Source: Ceasefire with Iran was a mistake, John Bolton says | The Hill Sunday (YouTube)