Top 10 RB Picks: Busts or Big Hits?

Top 10 RB Picks: Busts or Big Hits?

Running backs used to be the undisputed stars of the NFL, carrying the load for their teams. But recently, their value in terms of money and draft picks has dropped. For the first time in 50 years, no running back was picked in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft. This trend continued the next year. Several factors explain this shift: running backs often have shorter careers, and teams now prefer a committee of backs instead of one main player getting tons of carries. It’s now common to find great running backs later in the draft or even as undrafted players. This makes picking a running back in the top 10 a big gamble, putting immense pressure on those selected to perform right away.

Todd Gurley: A Rocket Start, Then Injury’s Shadow

In 2015, the St. Louis Rams took Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick. Gurley was seen as the perfect all-around back. He had the size and strength to break tackles, plus the speed to break free for long touchdowns. He was also a good receiver out of the backfield. The only worry was his injury history, as he tore his ACL in his final college game. Despite this, the Rams believed he could be their main guy from day one.

Gurley lived up to the hype immediately, gaining 566 yards in his first four starts, the most for any back since the NFL merger. He finished his rookie year as one of the league’s top backs, earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. By 2017, under coach Sean McVey, Gurley was unstoppable. He racked up over 2,000 total yards and 19 touchdowns, leading all non-quarterbacks. He finished second in MVP voting that year. He continued his dominance in 2018, leading the league in total touchdowns and helping the Rams reach the Super Bowl. However, knee issues, specifically arthritis in his left knee, began to take their toll after the divisional round playoff game. His performance dropped significantly in 2019, leading the Rams to release him. He played one year in Atlanta and retired in 2022, never playing a professional game after age 26. While Gurley had an incredible peak, his career was ultimately cut short by injuries.

Ezekiel Elliott: Dominance and a Pricey Deal

The Dallas Cowboys selected Ezekiel Elliott with the fourth pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Elliott was a complete back with no major weaknesses. He had the durability and power to be a workhorse, combined with versatility in the passing game and strong pass protection. He also never fumbled in college. Paired with rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, the Cowboys’ offense soared in 2016. Elliott led the league in yards per game for his first three seasons and earned three Pro Bowl selections by his fourth year. This success led to a massive six-year, $90 million contract extension, making him the highest-paid running back in the NFL.

However, the length and guaranteed money of his deal were questioned, given the short lifespan of running backs. Unfortunately, factors like wear and tear, age, and a lack of focus led to a quick decline. Elliott failed to reach 1,000 rushing yards in 2020 and became one of the league’s least efficient backs by 2022. The Cowboys eventually moved on, and Elliott spent time with the Patriots and returned to Dallas as a backup before not making a roster in 2025. Both Elliott and Gurley show why teams are hesitant to invest heavily in running backs, as their careers, despite strong starts, faded quickly by their mid-to-late twenties.

Leonard Fournette: flashes of Brilliance, but Inconsistent

In 2017, the Jacksonville Jaguars used the fourth overall pick on Leonard Fournette. He was a physically dominant back with terrifying power and explosiveness, drawing comparisons to Adrian Peterson. His main concern was his longevity, as his aggressive style often led to him seeking contact. Despite this, scouts saw him as a top-10 talent.

Fournette showed flashes as a rookie, including the season’s longest run of 90 yards, where he set a record for fastest speed by an NFL player that season. However, beyond highlights, he was often inefficient, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. His second year was a disappointment due to injuries, playing only half the season. 2019 saw a bounce-back with nearly 1,700 all-purpose yards, but he was considered an average starter, and the Jaguars moved on. Fournette then joined Tampa Bay, playing a key role in their Super Bowl victory as “Playoff Lenny” with touchdowns in all four playoff games. He continued in a complementary role for the next two seasons, eventually being released and playing just two games for the Bills in 2023 before his career ended at age 28. Like Gurley and Elliott, Fournette’s career declined around ages 26-27, and he never reached the elite status some predicted.

Christian McCaffrey: The Exception to the Rule

The other running back taken in the top 10 of the 2017 draft was Christian McCaffrey by the Carolina Panthers at number eight. McCaffrey offered a different style: smaller, more elusive, and an exceptional receiver out of the backfield, drawing comparisons to Marshall Faulk. He was seen as a versatile weapon for any offense.

As a rookie, McCaffrey was more effective as a receiver, setting a Panthers rookie record for receptions and gaining over 1,000 total yards. In 2018, he exploded with over 1,000 rushing yards and 100 catches. He reached unparalleled heights in 2019, rushing for over 1,400 yards and gaining over 1,000 receiving yards, with 19 total touchdowns. Achieving 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season is incredibly rare. He accounted for 43% of his team’s offensive yards that year. Injuries then hampered him for two seasons, but after being traded to the 49ers, he experienced a resurgence. He led the NFL in rushing yards in 2023 and was an MVP candidate in 2025 with another elite season. Despite some injury concerns since 2020, McCaffrey has been a three-time first-team All-Pro and a key player in two playoff runs, proving the trade for him was worth it. He stands out as a rare success story among top-10 running back picks.

Saquon Barkley: A Legendary Start, a Resurgence

Saquon Barkley was selected second overall by the New York Giants in 2018. Barkley was a physical marvel with elite speed, elusiveness, and the ability to create something out of nothing, earning comparisons to Barry Sanders. General managers called him special, with no real concerns about his talent.

He immediately proved his worth with a monster rookie season, amassing over 2,000 total yards and 15 touchdowns. He continued to be special in 2019 but began battling injuries, which plagued him for the next few years, including missing most of 2020. After a solid return in 2022, he had a down year in 2023, leading the Giants to move on. However, he found new life with division rival Philadelphia. In 2024, Barkley had a historic season, rushing for over 2,000 yards and becoming arguably the best player in the league. He was a major difference-maker in the Eagles’ Super Bowl run, with incredible postseason stats. While 2025 was a struggle for the Eagles offense, Barkley, turning 29 in 2026, has cemented himself as the best back in his draft class, especially after his dominant 2024 season.

Bijan Robinson: An Instant Impact

The Atlanta Falcons took Bijan Robinson with the eighth pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Robinson was a complete back with exceptional traits, including agility and elite contact balance. One executive even called him a tougher runner than Barkley coming out of college.

In just three seasons, Robinson has been a huge success. After a solid rookie year, he exploded in 2024 with nearly 2,000 total yards. He followed that up in 2025 by leading the league in total yards and earning first-team All-Pro honors. He could easily be considered the best back in the NFL right now. The focus now is on how long he can maintain this level of play and if the Falcons can build a competitive team around him. Alongside Jahmyr Gibbs, who was also picked just outside the top 10, Robinson forms a dynamic duo at the top of the 2023 running back class.

Ashton Gentry: A Promising Talent Facing Challenges

In the 2025 NFL Draft, the Las Vegas Raiders selected Ashton Gentry with the eighth pick. Gentry had an impressive college career at Boise State, showcasing power, contact balance, and explosive speed, leading to many long touchdown runs. However, his rookie year in Vegas was tough, marked by a low yards-per-carry average and few 100-yard games.

The transcript notes that the Raiders’ offensive line was atrocious, potentially the worst in the league, which significantly impacted Gentry’s performance. The article emphasizes that running backs heavily rely on their offensive line, citing Barkley’s improved efficiency with the Eagles compared to the Giants. Gentry is seen as a player who needs more time and better line play to show his true potential, with the belief that he can still prove why he was a top-10 pick.

Source: RB’s Drafted in the Top 10… Worth the Hype? (since 2015) (YouTube)