Miami (OH) Stuns 31-0, Shakes NCAA Bracket Landscape

Miami (OH) Stuns 31-0, Shakes NCAA Bracket Landscape

The NCAA Tournament landscape was sent into a frenzy early this week as the undefeated Miami Redhawks, a team that finished the regular season a perfect 31-0, were defeated. This stunning upset, which occurred in the Mid-American Conference tournament, has sent shockwaves through the college basketball world and particularly impacted teams on the bubble anxiously awaiting their tournament fate.

Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s premier bracketologist, joined “The Rich Eisen Show” to dissect the implications of this seismic event. “The conversation that Miami needed to win out to make the tournament. It’s absurd,” Eisen stated, a sentiment Lunardi acknowledged, though he pointed out the differing opinions held by fans of teams like Auburn, SMU, and Indiana.

The Miami loss represents a significant departure from historical precedent. “There have been six prior undefeated regular season teams since seeding began in 1979,” Lunardi explained. “And all of the prior ones have been one seeds, not bubble teams, one seeds.” These teams include powerhouses like Kentucky, Gonzaga, Wichita State, and Lunardi’s own St. Joe’s Hawks. The notion that a 31-0 team would even be considered a bubble team, let alone not a lock for a top seed, is what Lunardi describes as a “pretty big runway of dispute.”

Despite the loss, Lunardi believes Miami will still earn a tournament bid. “At some point 31-0 has to matter. No doubt. Even to a slave to the numbers, like me and other people like me,” he asserted. He conceded that a “bad day” for the selection committee or other “bid thieves” could see Miami relegated to the First Four in Dayton, but stressed that 31 wins must hold significant weight.

Top Seeds and Shifting Hierarchies

Lunardi also provided insight into the projected top seeds for the men’s tournament. Duke, Michigan, and Arizona are considered “all but locked” for No. 1 seeds, pending their performance in conference tournaments. Duke is set to play Florida State, Arizona faces UCF, and Michigan, due to the Big Ten’s expanded format, plays later in the week.

Florida is the fourth projected No. 1 seed, but their position is less secure. “Still some wiggle room there because the Gators could lose in the SEC tournament certainly and Yukon can run the table and win the Big East championship,” Lunardi noted. However, he characterized the distinction between a one and two seed as a “distinction without a difference,” as these teams are likely to be placed in regions where they could meet in an Elite Eight matchup.

Regarding Duke’s overall No. 1 seed aspirations, Lunardi suggested the Blue Devils might be prioritizing health over the top spot. “Duke is playing the long game here,” he stated. “This is not the tournament they necessarily want to win the most, the ACC tournament.” With key players like Caleb Foster (broken foot) and Patrick Ngamba sidelined, Duke is seemingly willing to risk losing the top overall seed to ensure their players are healthy for the NCAA Tournament.

“They’re still going to be a one seed. They’re still going to be in the East and they’re still going to start next Thursday, a week from today in Greenville, South Carolina,” Lunardi assured. Eisen added, “Make sure that they that they’re all healthy. Make sure to play the the long game because the the one seed will still be there.”

Lunardi also remains a believer in Michigan, despite an injury to LJ Kaho. “I have to stay on that horse,” he declared, referencing his preseason pick for the Wolverines. “Even after the injury to LJ Kase and you know that’s legitimate. He’s uh he plays starters minutes even though he comes off the bench, but they did just go in and win at Michigan State and East Lancing without him.”

Bubble Watch and Conference Projections

For fan bases anxiously watching the bubble, Lunardi highlighted Auburn as a team that needs a strong conference tournament run following the Miami upset. “Auburn, which just got bumped out of the bracket by Miami of Ohio losing,” he said. Auburn’s immediate challenge is facing Tennessee in the SEC tournament.

The Mountain West Conference is another area of focus. “This has been a big Steeler conference in the recent past. They’ve sent uh five, six, and four teams to the tournament in each of the last three years,” Lunardi observed. Teams like New Mexico, San Diego State, and Utah State could secure automatic bids and potentially take away at-large bids from teams in power conferences.

Looking at conference projections, Lunardi anticipates the SEC will lead the nation in tournament teams with approximately 10, followed by the Big Ten with nine or 10. The Big 12 and ACC are expected to each send around eight teams.

Women’s Tournament Picture

The discussion then shifted to the women’s tournament, with Lunardi joined by “women’s brackettologist” Charlie Cream. The projected No. 1 seeds are nearly set: UConn, UCLA, Texas, and South Carolina. “It’s it’s been kind of readily apparent for a while now,” Cream stated, noting that all the major conference tournaments have concluded, leaving these top teams to rest.

The real drama on the women’s side lies in securing hosting bids for the first and second rounds, awarded to the top 16 teams. “We have essentially two bubbles because the top 16 teams get to host first and second round games,” Cream explained. Teams like Kentucky, West Virginia, Michigan State, and Oklahoma are in contention for these coveted spots.

Eisen expressed his personal interest in Michigan’s chances, given their close games against UCLA and UConn earlier in the season. Cream acknowledged Michigan’s potential, noting they are “right there with them” as contenders.

Fans are encouraged to fill out their brackets for both the men’s and women’s tournaments at ESPN.com/TC or via the ESPN Tournament Challenge app.

“You just play one on TV.” – Joe Lunardi on his “Dr. Brackets” persona.

Source: Dr. Brackets' office 🩺 Joe Lunardi talks NCAA Tournament, Duke & Miami (OH) | The Rich Eisen Show (YouTube)