Cinderella’s Dead? Experts Debate March Madness Magic

Is the March Madness Magic Fading? Experts Divided on the Future of Cinderellas

The phrase “March Madness” evokes images of upsets, underdog stories, and teams defying all odds. But in recent years, a question has emerged: is the era of the Cinderella team over? Some prominent voices in college basketball believe the landscape of the sport, particularly with the rise of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals, is fundamentally changing the nature of the NCAA Tournament. Others remain optimistic that the inherent unpredictability of March will always create opportunities for beloved underdog runs.

Jay Williams Declares Cinderellas Extinct

The debate was recently amplified by Jay Williams on ESPN’s First Take. He argued that the concept of a Cinderella team, one that makes a deep tournament run against all expectations, is effectively dead. Williams pointed to the increasing trend of top talent from mid-major programs being lured away by lucrative NIL deals at power conference schools.

“You can’t leave a team that’s undefeated over 30 games in a regular season out of a field of 68. You can’t do that. Hear me on this one. Cinderellas are dead.”

– Jay Williams

Williams elaborated on his stance, suggesting that players averaging significant points on smaller teams are now easily enticed by offers from ACC or Big 12 programs, even if it means a lesser role. “Oh, I’ll give you $600,000. Come on over here. Come on, play with me at Boston College. That’s what’s happening over and over and over again,” he stated. This talent drain, according to Williams, prevents mid-major teams from accumulating the necessary talent to mount significant tournament challenges.

Joel Embiid’s Take: The Magic Lingers

Not everyone agrees with this grim outlook. Joel Embiid, while acknowledging Williams’ point about player enticement, believes the spirit of March Madness is far from dead. He emphasized that in a single-elimination tournament, any team can have a bad day, and an underdog playing hot can always pull off an upset.

“I see where he’s coming from about being enticed, you know, going to another school if you’re, you know, you can go to the ACC, you can go to the Big 12 and be able to get a little bit more money and play on a higher level. But you know what? I know basketball some days you just have bad days and you can run against one of these teams that are that are hot trending up at the end of the season and there’s no telling they could knock you off. So, I see where he’s coming from but I don’t think the Cinderella is dead. I’m I want to keep it alive. That’s what March Madness is about.”

– Joel Embiid

The discussion also touched on the impact of NIL on the mid-major landscape. Coaches at these levels, it’s reported, are now pitching recruits on the idea of using their program as a stepping stone to a power conference school, further complicating talent retention.

Potential Cinderellas for This Year’s Dance

Despite the debate, the panelists were eager to identify teams that could make a surprise run in the upcoming tournament. St. Louis emerged as a strong contender in their eyes.

• St. Louis Billikens: Praised for their strong offensive and defensive metrics, coached by the highly-regarded Josh Schertz. The team boasts multiple scorers, with seven players averaging over nine points, highlighting their balance and making them a difficult matchup. Their high tempo and defensive prowess, particularly guarding the three-point line and two-point percentage, make them a team no opponent wants to face.

Another area of focus was the Missouri Valley Conference. While acknowledging that specific teams like Belmont had recently suffered significant losses, the consensus was that the conference winner, whether it be Drake, UIC, Illinois State, or Bradley, should be capable of securing at least one tournament win. The unpredictability of their conference tournament, where top seeds aren’t always protected, adds to their potential for March magic.

Finally, St. Mary’s was highlighted as a potential Cinderella out of the West Coast Conference. The Gaels, with a 27-4 record and ranked 21st in the NET, have a history of making deep runs under coach Randy Bennett, including a Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2010. Though projected as a seven seed facing a tough matchup against a two seed, their consistent performance and experience make them a team to watch.

Looking Ahead: Upset Potential Remains

While the concentration of talent at the very top of college basketball might be increasing, the panelists agreed that the possibility of upsets remains. The memory of Purdue’s shocking loss to Fairleigh Dickinson just a couple of years ago serves as a potent reminder. The essence of March Madness, the chance for a team to get hot for a few games, is still very much alive. Even if the exact definition of a Cinderella is evolving, the potential for exciting upsets and memorable runs is something fans can still count on.

Source: Is the Cinderella Era Over? 🤯 | Picking This Year’s March Madness Sleepers (YouTube)