Trump Blunders Into Iran Conflict, Lacks Strategy

Trump Lacks Iran Strategy, Experts Warn of Disaster

Donald Trump has stepped into a dangerous situation with Iran, according to journalist David Cay Johnston. Johnston, a long-time observer of Trump, believes the president has “no idea” what he’s gotten himself into. This lack of understanding, combined with a focus on personal gain, could lead to serious trouble for the United States.

Conflicting Signals and a Risky Path

Reports indicate the U.S. is planning to send 10,000 more troops to the region. This comes as Trump extends a pause on striking Iran’s energy facilities for another 10 days. Johnston suggests Trump’s actions are driven by falling poll numbers and a need to appease his base, which was promised an end to “endless foreign wars.” The public disapproval of Trump’s Iran policy is high, even higher than during President Biden’s lowest points.

A Leader Without Knowledge

Johnston describes Trump as a “con artist” with no real knowledge of foreign policy or complex geopolitical issues. He claims that if asked about the deep historical split between Sunni and Shia Islam, Trump would likely change the subject. This ignorance, Johnston fears, makes a ground invasion a real possibility. Sending just 10,000 troops for such an invasion would likely end very badly, he warns.

“Donald has no idea what he’s gotten into. It’s all bluster.”

The Powell Doctrine Ignored

The U.S. is sending amphibious assault troops from Japan, which will take about 20 days to arrive by sea. Johnston points to the Powell Doctrine, established over 30 years ago. This doctrine states that any military action needs a clear purpose, allies, and overwhelming international force. Trump, however, has alienated potential allies, with European nations like Germany and Scandinavian countries showing contempt for his actions. He also seems to be acting without broad international support.

War Aims Shift and a Failed Strategy

The objectives for any potential conflict with Iran have shifted. Initially, it seemed to be about regime change. Then, the focus moved to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, which some believe are already dismantled. Now, the stated goal appears to be reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil and gas transport. Johnston argues that regime change is unlikely. He believes that to overthrow a government, one needs to work with internal opposition, but many potential dissidents have been alienated and turned into “Iranian patriots” by foreign interference.

A Dangerous Misunderstanding of Nuclear Weapons

Johnston also criticizes a fundamental misunderstanding of nuclear weapons. He states that these are defensive tools, not offensive ones. If Iran were to develop a nuclear bomb and use it against Israel, Iran would be completely destroyed. He draws a parallel to Ukraine, suggesting that if they had not given up their nuclear weapons, they might not have been invaded by Russia.

Internal Issues and External Consequences

Iran itself is a sophisticated country with deep cultural and intellectual traditions. Johnston believes the West has damaged the potential for a natural relationship with Iran. He notes that Russia is now providing intelligence to Iran on how to harm American servicemen, a development he finds alarming. The conflict also has global economic consequences, including potential shortages of fertilizers and disruptions to natural gas supplies, which will cause hardship in Europe.

Christian Nationalism and a “Holy War”

The interview touches on the disturbing rise of Christian nationalism within some fringes of the MAGA movement. Figures like Pete Hegseth have spoken of fighting a “holy war” and praying for “overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy.” Johnston criticizes this, stating that the U.S. was founded on the principle of separation of church and state. He views such rhetoric as a dangerous attempt to turn America into a sectarian nation and notes that these anti-Christian sentiments are espoused by those who claim to be Christians. He points out that Trump himself is the “most irreligious man you can possibly imagine,” yet these religious narratives are being used to justify conflict.

Trump’s Self-Preservation and Shifting Blame

Johnston believes Trump is using figures like JD Vance and Pete Hegseth as scapegoats. Trump, who he says has never admitted to a failure in nearly 40 years, is likely setting them up to blame if the Iran situation goes poorly. He describes Trump as someone who sees people as either tools or obstacles, and who is heavily influenced by whoever spoke to him last. Johnston suspects that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and possibly Hegseth persuaded Trump to escalate actions against Iran.

Focus on Midterms and Legal Woes

The upcoming midterms are also a significant factor. Recent by-election results show a trend of Democrats winning seats previously held by Republicans. Even Trump’s neighbors in Palm Beach have shown signs of turning against him. Losing either chamber of Congress in the midterms would likely unleash numerous investigations into Trump’s affairs, including documents related to the Epstein case. Johnston questions why Trump is fighting so hard to keep millions of pages of documents secret if they truly exonerate him.

Iran’s Control and Trump’s Insecurity

Ultimately, Johnston believes Iran is in control of the situation. They have no desire to bow down to Trump and aim to humiliate the West. He compares the current Iranian leadership to the warrior popes of the past. He fears Trump, driven by ego and a desire for power, may launch a land invasion. Given Iran’s extensive military preparedness from its eight-year war with Iraq, such an invasion would be highly problematic, especially without allies. Johnston concludes that Iran will continue to humiliate the West as long as it can, and Trump, despite his bluster, is ill-equipped to handle the consequences.

Source: Trump has 'no idea' what he’s gotten into on Iran | David Cay Johnston (YouTube)