Cinderella’s Dead? Experts Doubt Double-Digit Seeds

Cinderella’s Reign Over? Experts Doubt Double-Digit Seeds in March Madness

The magic of March Madness is under scrutiny this year, with many experts questioning the future of underdog teams making deep runs. For the second straight year, lower-seeded teams like 13, 14, and 15 seeds have struggled in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. This trend has led some to believe that the era of the true Cinderella team might be over.

The Impact of NIL and the Transfer Portal

A major reason cited for this shift is the rise of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals and the transfer portal. “Cinderella are dead in my opinion,” stated one analyst. “Double-digit like seeds going to a Final Four like Chicago Loyola or VCU is no longer going to be a thing.” The argument is that NIL money and the ability for players to transfer easily allow bigger programs to retain talent and recruit top players, making it harder for smaller schools to build and sustain winning programs.

“Think about this,” the analyst continued. “Yesterday favorites were 16-0. The only true mid-major was High Point, who had an NIL budget of over three-plus million dollars.” This suggests that even mid-major success is now tied to financial resources, blurring the lines between traditional powerhouses and emerging teams.

The ability to transfer means that if a player shines on a mid-major team, they can often be lured away by a power conference school with a better NIL package. “I’m going to look at you at the bottom of the conference of a power conference and say, if I’m Boston College, you know what? Why don’t you come over here for $600,000 or $700,000?” the expert explained. This makes it difficult for smaller schools to keep their star players and build the continuity needed for deep tournament runs.

Key Matchups to Watch

UCLA vs. Yukon: A Coaching Battle

The matchup between UCLA and Yukon features two intense coaches, Mick Cronin and Dan Hurley. Earlier in the season, Cronin publicly called his UCLA team “soft.” Despite this criticism, and even after throwing a player out of a game, the Bruins have responded well. Since that incident, UCLA has gone 6-2, including wins against Michigan State, Illinois, and Nebraska. “He not only called his team soft, they were 17-9 and six in the Big Ten,” one commentator noted. “And he took one of his own players and threw him out of the game.”

This turnaround shows a strong buy-in from the players to Cronin’s demanding style. “They understand his passion, but they also understand how much time he spends with him off the court, how much he cares about him as a person,” it was explained. UCLA is now just one win away from the Sweet 16, proving they are a dangerous team when playing hard defensively and sharing the ball.

St. John’s vs. Kansas: A Defensive Test

Rick Pitino’s St. John’s Red Storm faces a tough challenge against Kansas. The key to this game, according to analysts, will be St. John’s’ ability to pressure Kansas. “Darren Peterson, Dylan Mitchell, we can guard your point forward, your point guard to your power forward. His ability to take someone out of the game,” one expert highlighted. Dylan Mitchell, in particular, is noted as the difference-maker for St. John’s, excelling at creating deflections and easy baskets with his defensive pressure.

The question remains how Kansas will handle the relentless pressure from St. John’s, especially after made baskets. The matchup also features key battles in the frontcourt between St. John’s’ Zubie and Floyd Badinga against Kansas’s bigs.

Duke’s Freshman Challenge

The top-seeded Duke Blue Devils narrowly avoided an upset against Siena, a 16-seed. Despite the scare, Duke is still heavily favored against TCU. However, concerns remain about their young core. “When you’re going against a veteran team, right? So any time you’re a freshman and you play your first game or when you do your first broadcast, you’re nervous as hell, right?” one analyst commented.

Duke has a lot of freshmen in key roles, including Cameron Boozer and Kaden Boozer. TCU, being a smaller team that was outrebounded significantly in their last game (36-24 in the paint), needs to win the battle on the boards against Duke’s size. “They are the 320th smallest team in Division 1 basketball. Duke is top 10,” it was pointed out. For TCU to have a chance, they must dominate the paint and get the ball down low to their bigs.

The close call against Siena might serve as a wake-up call for Duke’s young players. “You would think so. You would think that like, you know, once you got that first one out of your system that you felt more eased into the game,” one commentator said. However, the tournament is unpredictable, and each game presents a new challenge. The first few minutes will be crucial for Duke to establish dominance and prevent an underdog from gaining confidence.

The Future of Cinderella

While the traditional Cinderella run seems less likely, the spirit of March Madness endures. Teams like High Point, despite being a mid-major, showed potential with their fast-paced style. “If there was a team that I could believe in. If there was one, I would go with High Point,” an analyst stated. However, even for teams like High Point, the combination of NIL and the transfer portal creates a challenging environment for sustained success against well-funded programs.

As the tournament progresses, all eyes will be on whether any double-digit seeds can defy the odds and prove that the magic of Cinderella is not entirely dead.

Source: Cinderella teams are DEAD!? JWill can't see ANY double-digit seeds in the Final Four | SportsCenter (YouTube)