Bracket Busts? NIL Era Shifts Upsets, Favorites Reign

Bracket Busts? NIL Era Shifts Upsets, Favorites Reign

The College GameDay podcast crew is diving headfirst into the NCAA Tournament bracket, and the conversation is already buzzing with the implications of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) on traditional tournament upsets. As the brackets were revealed on Sunday, March 15th, hosts Dan Wetzel, Jeff Borzello, and Pete Thamill dissected the field, debated controversial selections, and explored a looming question: Has NIL killed the Cinderella story?

Miami (OH) Earns Controversial First Four Berth

The initial shockwave of the bracket reveal involved Miami University of Ohio, who initially earned a spot as the final at-large bid. However, the term “seed scrubbing” entered the lexicon as the committee dropped them down, forcing a First Four matchup against in-state rival SMU. The proximity of the game, just an hour apart, adds an intriguing layer to what is already shaping up to be one of the most talked-about First Four games in recent memory.

“I am actually excited they’re going to Dayton,” said Thamill. “Not certain they fell where they should have fallen. You could argue whether they they shouldn’t have or not but I I think that spices up Dan Wetzel’s least favorite event of the year.”

The panel largely agreed that the teams who missed out, including Oklahoma, Auburn, and San Diego State, largely had themselves to blame for not securing bids through their regular season or conference tournament performances. Auburn, in particular, was noted for having too many losses and for being just one game above .500, factors the committee historically hasn’t overlooked.

The NIL Effect: Are Upsets Becoming Obsolete?

A central theme of the podcast was the potential impact of NIL on the tournament landscape. Citing an ESPN article by David Perum, the discussion highlighted that last year’s tournament saw the fewest upsets since 1985, with the Elite Eight and Final Four comprised entirely of top seeds. This trend has led to the provocative question: Did NIL kill the upset?

Borzello elaborated on the widening gap between high-major programs and mid-majors. “I think so. I mean, just think the gap between the the mid- majors and the high majors is so big. I mean, it’s millions and millions of dollars. And I also think what it’s done is it’s made the the top of the bracket, the Arizonas, the Floridaas, the Michigan, it’s made them just really really good. I mean, it’s made it’s made them older. It’s made them more talented. It’s brought back NBA players that would have previously been gone.”

The traditional advantage of continuity for mid-major teams, where players would stay for three or four years, is eroding. Now, power-five teams can simply recruit experienced players from those mid-major programs. This shift, combined with the fact that many top seeds in mid-major conference tournaments also lost, has led to a perception of a more predictable, “chalk” tournament.

Thamill added, “Continuity was the eternal mid-major competitive advantage, right? It was uh, you know, Matt Howard banging down the boards at Butler for uh, for for four years like and the transfer rule and and NIL have taken that competitive advantage away. It’s it’s really really simple.”

Defending Champs Florida and the Rise of New Coaching Personalities

The conversation also turned to the defending national champions, Florida, who are aiming to become back-to-back winners, a feat not accomplished since UConn. While Florida has been dominant, the panel questioned if this iteration possesses the same “overwhelming” quality as last year’s squad, particularly noting the absence of a “generational clutch player” like Walter Clayton.

However, the emergence of new coaching personalities like Todd Golden of Florida and Dusty May of Florida Atlantic is injecting new life into the sport. Golden, in particular, has drawn praise for his confidence and willingness to engage in verbal sparring, most notably with Kentucky and John Calipari.

“We want our coaches to be interesting. We want them to be cockure and we want them to be swashbuckling and good,” said Thamill of Golden. “By the way, Todd Golden is all those things. He’s an excellent coach. He has an edge. He is unafraid to say exactly what’s on his mind.” This new breed of confident, outspoken coaches is seen as a positive for the tournament’s entertainment value.

Early Bracket Thoughts: East Region and Potential Upsets

As the panel began to dissect specific regions, the East Coast region sparked debate. Mick Cronin’s Cincinnati team heading to Philadelphia was highlighted as a particularly intriguing storyline, with the hosts anticipating his famously curmudgeonly reactions.

Jeff Borzello pointed out the abundance of high-level guards in the East, including Bruce Thornton (Ohio State), Dajuan Harris Jr. (Kansas), and a host of others. The potential matchup between Duke and St. John’s was also flagged as a physical contest, with St. John’s’ physicality posing a significant challenge to Duke, especially considering Duke’s injury concerns.

Despite the prevailing sentiment of a more chalk-heavy tournament, the hosts did identify potential upset candidates. South Florida was highlighted as a team significantly undervalued at an 11-seed, with their strong recent record making them a dangerous opponent for Louisville. The panel also expressed a desire to pick Northern Iowa, but acknowledged the difficulty of backing them against Rick Pitino’s Iona team.

The overarching sentiment is that while the NIL era may be tilting the scales towards top-tier programs, the NCAA Tournament remains a captivating spectacle, capable of producing drama and compelling narratives, even if the traditional Cinderella stories are becoming rarer.

Source: Best Matchups, Upsets, & Star Power: Full Bracket Breakdown | College GameDay Podcast (YouTube)